Friday, February 26, 2010

NOREASTER COMES BACK IN USA

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR USA EAST


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010  MDZ501-VAZ021-WVZ054-501-503-261600- /O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100226T2300Z/ EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-PENDLETON-WESTERN GRANT- WESTERN MINERAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...BAYARD...EMORYVILLE... HARTMANSVILLE 300 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010  ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...  A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.  * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.  * ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 20 INCHES TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  * TIMING...THE HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG WITH BLIZZARD   CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING   UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.  * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING.   HIGHS IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH NOON WILL BE   AS LOW AS MINUS 10 DEGREES.  * WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW   REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. 

Sunday, February 21, 2010

RAINFALL ALERT ON MONDAY 22ND SEPT NAGPUR

RAINFALL ALERT# 03 ISSUED FOR NAGPUR. RAINFALL ON 22ND SEPT 2010 AFTER 3PM. 
THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED T.STORM TODAY AT NAGPUR LEADING TO CONVECTIVE RAINS BY NIGHT. I DEFY ALERT FROM 3PM TO 12AM TUE. CHANCE OF RAIN IS MORE FROM 5PM ON MON TO 8PM MON. ALERT!!


AKSHAY

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

RAINFALL ALERT FOR TUESDAY<16TH FEB 2010>

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS

RAINFALL ALERT FOR NAGPUR CONTINUES TODAY AS WELL. MODELS SHOWING RAINFALL LIKE YESTERDAY. TODAY THE ACTION IS TO START LATER IN EVN ABT 5-6PM. RAINS MAY START AT NIGHT AS WELL WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY 7PM AS THE 500MB MODEL SHOWS  STRONG CHANGES<DECREASE> IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT WHICH SAYS T.STORM IN AREA.

RAIN OF ABT 0.5MM EXPECTED WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2.3MM


ALERT ALERT ALERT

Monday, February 15, 2010

RAINFALL ALERT FOR NAGPUR ON MONDAY IN FINAL PHASE

METD ALERT

THE MODELS HAVE TURNED EXTREMELY POSITIVE SUGGESTING 5MM RAINFALL WITH T.STORMS TODAY BY 4-5PM WHICH WILL CONTINUE TILL NIGHT
STAY SAFE.TOMORROWS WEATHER I SHALL TELL LATER

RAINFALL TO START BY 4PM OR 5PM


AKSHAY

Sunday, February 14, 2010

RAINFALL ALERT FOR MONDAY<15TH FEB> TO WEDNESDAY<17TH FEB 2010> IN NAGPUR

METD WEATHER
AKSHAY DEORAS-

ALERT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL
AT THE 200M BLEVEL,THERE IS A STRONG DIVERGENCE OF THE FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE WHICH WILL LEAD TO STORNG VERTICAL VELOCITIES WHICH TENDS TO BRING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH UNSEASONABLE 95-100KT JET IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING OUT OF THE COUNTRY TOWARDS THE EAST.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING TSTORMS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RIGHT NOW IN THE UPPER NORTH. THE MAXIMUM VELOCITY AREAS ARE SURROUNDED BY TH DIVERGENCE ZONE. SO IT IS NOTHING OUT AT 500MB LEVEL WHICH SAYS THERE WILL BE A RIDEG IN NAGPUR. 
AN UPPER LEVEL FORECASTING IS SURE FOR RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN NAGPUR THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TILL THE NIGHT OF TUESDAY
THE UPPER ZONE WILL MEET THE SURFACE LEVEL BY AFTERNOON<2-3PM> THIS MEANS THE ONSET OF RAINFALL. I CAN SAY WITH CONFIDENCE FOR RAINS BY 3PM AS THE TWO CONSECUTIVE MODELS SHOW UPGRADATION OF THE THE ZONE OF LESS TO MODERATE DIVERGENCE ZONE.
AN INSTABILITY OF 100-200J/KG WILL CREATE STRENGTHINING. 30MM WATER WILL BE PRESENT AT THE ATMOSPHERE FOR RAINS ON THE GROUND

MONDAY, 3PM 
RAINS WILL START AND CONTINUE TILL NIGHT.
TUESDAY,
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO START EARLY MORNING ITSELF AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM BY EVENING
WEDNESDAY- CLEAR

TOTAL RAINFALL EXP 4-5MM/DAY
MAX WIND TO BE 11KM/HR

HOURLY OBSERVATIONS WILL BE ISSUED BY ME AFTER OBSERVING THE CLOUDS AND THEIR DECEND.

STAY SAFE AND ENJOY A LITTLE DIP IN TEMP 

Thursday, February 11, 2010

2010 FEBRUARY'S NOR'EASTER BREAKS 1899'S RECORD



THE WINTER STORM WAS THE MOST DANGEROUS I HAVE EVER SEEN
IT BROKE ALL THE RECORDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969mb

AT 300 AM EST...
A 969 MB LOW WAS LOCATED
 ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK.
 IT CONTINUED TO DEEPEN WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY 
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST

Top 10 snowstorms on record for Philadelphia:

1. 30.7", Jan 7-8, 1996
2. 28.5", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
3. 23.2", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
4. 21.3", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 21.0", Dec 25-26, 1909
6. 19.4", Apr 3-4, 1915
7. 18.9", Feb 12-14, 1899
8. 16.7", Jan 22-24, 1935
9. 15.8", Feb 10-11, 2010
10. 15.1", Feb 28-Mar 1, 1941

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Baltimore:

1. 28.2", Feb 15-18, 2003
2. 26.5", Jan 27-29, 1922
3. 24.8", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
4. 22.8", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 22.5", Jan 7-8, 1996
6. 22.0", Mar 29-30, 1942
7. 21.4", Feb 11-14, 1899
8. 21.0", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 20.0", Feb 18-19, 1979
10. 19.5", Feb 10-11, 2010

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Washington, D.C.:

1. 28.0", Jan 27-28, 1922
2. 20.5", Feb 11-13, 1899
3. 18.7", Feb 18-19, 1979
4. 17.8" Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
5. 17.1", Jan 6-8, 1996
6. 16.7", Feb 15-18, 2003
7. 16.6", Feb 11-12, 1983
8. 16.4", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 14.4", Feb 15-16, 1958
10. 14.4", Feb 7, 1936

Snowiest winter on record for Baltimore, Washington D.C., Philadelphia, Atlantic City, and Wilmington
The snow from this latest blizzard have pushed snow totals for the 2009 - 2010 winter season to a new record for Baltimore, Washington D.C., Wilmington, Philadelphia, and Atlantic City. As of midnight last night, here were the snowfall numbers so far for the 2009 - 2010 winter, and the records they have broken:

Baltimore, MD, 79.9". Old record: 62.5", winter of 1995 - 1996.
Washington D.C. National Airport, 55.9". Old record: 54.4", winter of 1898 - 1899.
Washington Dulles Airport, VA, 75.0". Old record: 61.9", winter of 1995 - 1996.
Wilmington, DE, 66.7". Old record: 55.9", winter of 1995 - 1996.
Philadelphia, PA, 71.6". Old record: 65.5", winter of 1995 - 1996.
Atlantic City, NJ, 49.9". Current record: 46.9", winter of 1966 - 1967.



COURTESY-
wunderground.com
National Weather Service,USA

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR DC AREA



METD INT
IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUIRED

NWS HAS UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN DC AREA TO BLIZZARD WARNING
THE WARNING IS RIGHT FROM DC AREA TO BALTIMORE
HERE IS THE WARNING----

NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON- 
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- 
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE- 
PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON..
.CHESTERTOWN... CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO.
..CAMDEN... CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER..
. NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 1055 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010 
 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
  A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

... Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 7 PM EST this
evening... 

A Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 7 PM EST this evening.

* Precipitation type... snow.

* Accumulations... 10 to 20 inches. Drifts of 2 to 4 ft possible.

* Timing... snow will continue through this evening. Heaviest 
snowfall is expected this morning through early afternoon. 

* Temperatures... mid and upper 20s.

* Winds... winds will become northwest increasing to 25 to 35 mph 
with gusts around 55 mph. Blowing and drifting snow will 
reduce visibilities to a quarter mile or less at times... 
producing blizzard conditions. 

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
occurring. Do not venture outside. This is a life threatening
situation for anyone who becomes stranded. 

Falling and blowing snow with strong winds will create whiteout
conditions... making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel... have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded... stay with your vehicle.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Possible Hail outbreak over North-Western India

METD Weather
Akshay Deoras


ALERT FOR DAMAGING HAILS

To predict hails for USA has become easy but for India,it is challenging. Thanks to the NCEP weather models which have the facility of showing the CAPE models
Hails come from Severe thunderstorm when sufficient instability is present in the atmosphere and atmosphere is cool enough to form ice.
usually in USA Hails start at 750J/Kg onwards and as CAPE increases LARGE HAILS come from supercells. Hails are considered as an indicator for Tornado touchdowns as hails fall down when the strong Updrafts blow up the hails upto the cloud and updraft disappears when hail falls down . Similar to tornado. 

For north india, Tuesday will be a stormy day as as being seen in the Models a strong thunderstorm will smash North. this storm system will be pumping the moisture all the way from the arabian and CAPE will be abt 750-1000J/Kg round in pakistan. This will be pushed to North India on 9th Feb and simultaneously a a large trough will arrive with strong positive vorticities and it will react with T.storms. THE PRESENT MODEL RUN shows that a strong CAPE of  1500J/Kg will be present over central Jammu and Kashmir and some parts of himachal Pradesh. if we see the 500mb forecast some intense thunderstorm will be present
I call it a 20% chance of HAIL at the areas of Centrl J&k and some parts of Himachal

Thursday, February 4, 2010

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTH INDIA WITH A POSSIBLE UP GRADATION TO BLIZZARD WARNING<5-10FEB '10>

METD WEATHER
INDIA

CONCERNING HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH AN BLIZZARD WARNING
THE PRESENT GFS MODEL RUN OF 4TH FEB IS IMPRESSIVE FOR A FINAL WRITE-UP OF THE WARNING. ONCE MORE TIME IN 15 DAYS HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ALL SET TO HAPPEN IN NORTH INDIA

A BLIZZARD IS A CONDITION WHERE THERE ARE HIGH WINDS AND STORNG BLOWING SNOW FOR MORE THAN 3HRS WITH LOW VISIBILITY.THE WIND HAS TO BE MORE THAN 40KM/HR<AS PER CANADA>
INDIA IS GOING TO HAVE MANY BLIZZARDS...
BLIZZARD WARNING...........!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FROM SUN,MON,TUE

1[ SNOWFALL WILL START RIGHT FROM MORNING OF FRIDAY AND WILL INCREASE. 
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY WILL WITNESS T.STORM WITH HIGH WINDS
2] PEOPLE ARE INFORMED TO MAKE WHATEVER PREPARATIONS TOMORROW ONLY FOR PREPARING HEVY TO VERY HEAVY SNOW FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT
3] WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 32KM/HR DURING THE HIGH TIME ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EVERYWHERE
SPECIAL FOR DRAS WHERE THE WINDS BE 40KM/HR ON TUEDAY
4] SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HALT FOR SOMETIME ON MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN BACK ON TUESDAY
5] LANDSLIDES WARNING....


MODEL RUNS
4TH FEB
THE CYCLOGENESIS  WILL HAPPEN ABOVE MEDITERRANEAN SEA CAUSING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ADVANCE MORE AND SPREAD NORTH-SOUTH WARDS WITH A DROP OF ABOUT 42DAM FOR THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT THE 500MB LEVEL.

5TH FEB 
THE TROUGH WILL POSITION SOUTHWARDS AND WILL TEND TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
ON THE SAME DAY,A GOOD NEGATIVE VORTICITY SYSTEM WILL BE PRESENT OVER NORTH EAST TO EASTERN STATES LIKE HIMACHAL PRADESH AND SURE TO CAUSE SNOW IN MANALI,ROHTANG PASS,KYELONG WHERE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT TO CONVERT RAIN TO SNOW. 
THE FIRST WARNING FOR LIGHT SNOW IS 5TH FEB 2010 FOR MANALI,KYELONG,DRAS,BARALACHA PASS,GULMARG,SONAMARG,PEHALGAM AND ADJOINING AREAS OF LOW TEMPERATURE COUPLED BY MODERATE WINDS OF 21KM/HR

6TH FEB 2010,
SATURDAY
THE TROUGH COMES CLOSER TO INDIA AND A SEPARATE CHANNEL OF TROUGH STARTS FORMING. THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD SNOWFALL ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN AT THE ABOVE AREAS.
THE RATE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TILL MONDAY

WARNING FOR MODERATE SNOW IS 6TH FEB 2010 FOR MANALI,KYELONG,DRAS,BARALACHA PASS,GULMARG,SONAMARG,PEHALGAM AND ADJOINING AREAS OF LOW TEMPERATURE COUPLED BY MODERATE WINDS OF 18KM/HR
SRINAGAR TOO WILL WITNESS SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURE DIPS MORE

7TH FEB 2010
SUNDAY
BLIZZARD WARNING
THE SUNDAY MODELS NATURALLY WILL BE BETTER
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 5-6MM CAUSING ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW. SUNDAY INCLUDES BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORNING
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW IS 7TH FEB 2010 FOR MANALI,KYELONG,DRAS,BARALACHA PASS,GULMARG,SONMARG,PEHALGAM AND ADJOINING AREAS OF LOW TEMPERATURE COUPLED BY MODERATE WINDS OF 21KM/HR.

ON 7TH ANOTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER AFGHANISTHAN CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BE AMPLIFIED MORE


8TH FEB 2010
BLIZZARD WARNING
MONDAY
MONDAY IS THE REAL SHOW WITH ALL THE PARAMETERS EXCEEDING THE LIMITS
AS EXPECTED, MANALI WILL RECEIVE SNOW<WATER EQUIVALENCE OF 26.95MM
ALL THE ABOVE AREAS ONCE MORE ALERTED FOR HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL

THE REAL SHOW WILL BE HIMACHAL PRADESH AND JAMMU AND KASHMIR
MONDAY MORNING IT IS SURELY GOING TO SNOW VERY HEAVILY WITH HIGH WINDS OF 25KM/HR ALMOST EVERYWHERE. 
MONDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE THUNDERSTORM WILL ARRIVE IN J&K AND HIMACHAL CAUSING LIGHTNING,WIND AND RAINS. THIS WILL HALT THE SNOWFALL AS WHEN CENTER OF THE CORE IS A NON PRECIPITABLE AREA. 
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL DECREASE AFTER MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY BUT A NEW TROUGH FORMED DUE TO THIS MAIN ZONE WILL CAUSE ANOTHER SNOW DAY ACROSS EVERYWHERE FROM J&K TO HIMACHAL.
AGAIN IT WILL BE A MODERATE SNOW WITH HIGH WINDS

9TH FEB TUESDAY
BLIZZARD WARNING SLIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL WITNESS MODERATE SNOWFALL AND HIGH WINDS
SOME WILL BE 40KM/HR AT DRAS AND SIMILAR FOR KYELONG


STAT SAFE
AS THIS IS GOING TO BE INSANE!!!!!



Wednesday, February 3, 2010

HIGH LEVEL WARNING FOR RAINFALL STARTING BY 12 PM

METD NAGPUR
THE TIME HAS COME FOR THE RAINFALL STARTING ABOUT 12PM
THE WARM FRONT HAS ARRIVED AND THERE WILL BE 2.5MM RAIN. USE UMBRELLAS NOW AND PREPARE TO BE BLOWN BY WINDS BY 2PM





AKSHAY

RAINFALL ALERT FOR NAGPUR TOMORROW<4TH FEB 2010>

METD NAGPUR

ALERT FOR RAINFALL

DEAR ALL,
IT WAS LITTLE LATE TO INFORM YOU ABOUT TOMORROW'S RAINFALL

A MODERATE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS MOVING FROM ARABIAN SEA TO THE CENTRAL INDIA.
THIS TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NAGPUR AND CAUSE SOME RAINS TOMORROW. AS IS  BEING SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS 30% CHANCE OF RAINS WITH ACCUMULATION OF ABOUT 3MM INTO THE ACTIVITY. RAINS WILL START TOMORROW MORNING AND MIGHT BE OVER BY THE NOON. 
BUT AS THE TROUGH RESIDES OVER NGP, THERE WILL BE HIGH WINDS OF ABOUT 26KM/HR CAUSING EVERYONE TO ENJOY LITTLE RAINS,

THERE WILL BE LITTLE RAINFALL IN THE MORNING SO PLEASE USE UMBRELLA IF POSSIBLE ESP 8 AM TO 1 PM

ENJOY! 
AFTER THIS THERE WILL BE DROP IN THE TEMP AND AGAIN SOME COLD DAYS